16 Trends to Watch for in American Churches in 2016

adapted from Dr. Thom Rainer’s blog, thomrainer.com

  Dr. Rainer has been writing on trends in churches for two decades. He realizes that he certainly doesn’t have a perfect record with his predictions, but his overall record is pretty good.

  He explains that his methodology is simple: He observes emerging issues in some churches and extrapolates them into major trends.

  This year he approaches his predictions with a higher level of confidence than previous years. He has watched most of the following issues grow month by month in 2015, so he feels assured to project them as major trends in 2016.

1. Church security as the fastest growing ministry. Shootings in churches and sex abuse of children mandate this unfortunate trend. No church can afford to be without serious security measures, policies, and equipment. It will evolve into a major church ministry.

2. Decrease in worship center size and capacity. The large worship gathering is not as popular as it has been. Through multiple services and multiple sites, churches will follow this preference with smaller capacity worship centers.

3. Increase in successfully revitalized churches. More church leaders sense a call to lead revitalized churches. Because of this desire and intentionality, we will see more success stories of churches that have experienced significant revitalization. 
4. Rapid growth of coaching ministries for pastors and church staff. The current trend is anecdotal, but it will soon be verified and obvious. Pastors and staff who have the humility to be led, and the willingness to invest resources in coaching are becoming the most effective church leaders.
5. Increase in the numbers of churches in gentrified communities. Thousands of older urban communities are becoming revitalized. Churches are following the increased numbers of residents to these communities.
6. Increased emphasis on practical ministry training. Church leaders in America have seen a much needed two-decade renewal of training in classical disciplines and doctrine. That need remains, but more leaders are crying for training in leadership, relational skills, and other practical ministries. 
7. Increasing emphasis on groups in churches. Church leaders are getting it. When church members are a part of some type of group, such as a small group or Sunday school class, they attend more faithfully, evangelize more frequently, and give more abundantly. 
8. Fewer segregated churches. For most of American history, 11:00 am on Sunday was the most segregated hour of the week. That is changing. A church that is not racially and ethnically diverse will soon become the exception instead of the norm. 
9. The rise of the mini-denomination church. This trend is an acceleration of the increased number of multi-site churches. As churches grow with four or more sites, they will take on some of the characteristics of a denomination.
10. Increased pastoral tenure. For a number of reasons, the tenure of a pastor at a given church will increase. More pastors will make it to the five-year mark where the most fruitful years of ministry typically begin. 
11. Rise of alternative ministry placement organizations. Old and existing systems of how churches find prospective pastors and staff are falling apart. They are being replaced with effective and independent ministry search organizations. 
12. Increase in the number of Millennials who are Christians. I am projecting the number to increase from 15 percent of the generation to 18 percent of the generation. That is an increase of 2.3 million Millennials who will become believers in 2016. 
13. Accelerated decline of 100,000 American congregations. Historically, American congregations have been tenacious and survived beyond most expectations. That reality is no longer true. Ineffective churches will decline rapidly as churchgoers are unwilling to be a part of congregations that are not making a difference. 
14. Churches no longer viewed favorably by many governmental units. As a consequence, it will become increasingly difficult for churches to expand their physical facilities or to be able to hold functions in the community.
15. More bi-vocational pastors and staff. This trend is increasingly becoming the result of choices by pastors and staff, rather than financial limitations of congregations. 
16. Dramatic changes in senior adult ministries. The baby boomers will not participate in the way most churches do senior adult ministry. They will force change, particularly from the entertainment model to an activist model.
  
  Let’s watch and see. 
  I hope your 2016 is the best yet.

THINGS YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN ….

FOR CHURCH STAFF: The link to receive free newsletters and updates for every ministry:  www.lifeway.com/newsletters

FOR EDUCATION LEADERS: GBACE Annual Conference, SHIFT, with keynote speaker, Dr. Thom Rainer - http://www.gbace.org/annual-conference.html

FOR TRAINING LEADERSHIP: Ministry Pathways by Ministry Grid; Simplified plans for training ministry leaders throughout your church. http://buff.ly/1jZJIW5

FOR HELP IN WRITING YOUR OWN BIBLE STUDIES: Smallgroup.com offers Bible studies for every book in the Bible and over 200 topics.  Now video supported studies are available! - http://home.smallgroup.com/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP LEADERS: Four Voices That Need to be Heard in Small Groups by David Francis, http://www.lifeway.com/groupministry/2015/10/26/four-voices-in-every-group-conversation/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Top 5 Bible Studies to Begin the New Year with Matt Chandler, Jeremy Johnston, Randy Alcorn & More: http://buff.ly/1YYdVUS

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Bible Study Insider Box ($150 of New Short-Term Study Guides for $50 Which Includes Shipping & a $50 Voucher) http://biblestudyinsider.com/bsi-order-form/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP:  DevoHub, a new way of delivering a daily devotional to your church and community - http://devohub.com/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Disciples Path, a plan for developing disciples - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/Disciples-Path

FOR MEN’S MINISTRY: Johnny Hunt’s Men’s Conference simulcast, February 5-6, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/product-family/johnny-hunt-men's-conference?type=events&intcmp=MensEvents-MTX-Text-JHuntSimulcast-20150903

FOR WOMEN’S MINISTRY: Priscilla Shirer Live Simulcast, April 23, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/Priscilla-Shirer-Live-Simulcast?type=events&emid=women-pslsimulcasteblast1-pslsimulcastfamilypage-20151118

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: CONCLAVE Conference, Chattanooga, TN, January 28-30, 2016 - http://ymconclave.org/

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: Disciples Path for students – a new series for developing your student’s discipleship - http://www.lifeway.com/Disciples-Path/Youth/c/N-1z0znzeZ1z141ym?intcmp=DisciplesPath-MTX-Text-Students-20150625

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: LifeWay Girls Conference, February 19 & 20, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/LifeWay-Girls-Conference?type=events&EMID=jk-newslettergcon-092415

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: Kids Ministry Summit, Jekyll Island, GA, February 4-5 - http://gabaptistgroups.org/training-conferences/2016-kids-ministry-summit/

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: VBS Jumpstarts, helping to get your VBS off on the right foot - http://gabaptistgroups.org/training-conferences/2016-vbs-jumpstarts/

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: I’m a Christian Now resources, newly revised! - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/I'm-a-Christian-Now

The Best Christmas Gift

I’ve shared on several occasions via this blog over the past few years about several events that have impacted me and my family through the life and death of my son, Jacob. If you’ll indulge me I want to share another.

As a quick reminder or for those uninformed, Jacob was born with a severe and fatal (without intervention) heart defect called hypoplastic left heart syndrome back in 1988.  He underwent three open heart surgeries in Philadelphia within his first two years of birth by Dr. William Norwood, who had pioneered this series of palliative surgeries.

To fast forward to December 2004 … Jacob’s ailing heart was weakening to the point that our only hope was a heart transplant. So we sat and waited to see which of two results came first – a heart came or his time ran out.

Then on December 21^st, Karen and I received a call at 4:00am while we were in the catacombs of Egleston hospital in Atlanta.  In those catacombs the hospital had graciously provided free sleeping rooms for parents. The nurse called to gleefully announce to us that a heart had been located. I figured it was going to be awhile before the donor heart would make its way to the hospital and I knew it would be a long day of surgery so I jumped into the shower to wake me up and to get ready for what lay ahead.  About 20 minutes later, Jacob’s nurse called and frantically said, “Where are y’all?  They’re about to take Jacob away for prepping!” We rushed up to the floor, tying our shoes in the elevator, to get the chance to see Jacob and tell him we loved him (and praying it wouldn’t be for the last time). Thankfully, we made it in time.

The rest of the day was a whirlwind of updates and activity around us as the waiting room grew crowded with family and church friends praying for a Christmas miracle.

And it came … Early in the afternoon the surgeon came to meet with Karen and me in the consultation room. Often these rooms are used to break bad news to a person or family but he called us in because of the crush of friends and family that had accumulated in the waiting room.  Dr. Cantor shared that he couldn’t believe that Jacob’s old heart had lasted so long, but that the new one was in and beating well on its own.  He reminded us that the road ahead was a long one but that we were off to a good start.

Christmas Day 2004 with the family

Later that evening, Karen and I were able, at long last, to sit by the bed of Jacob. He was laid out on his back with tubes and wires running in and out and everywhere all over his body. If you stopped to listen in the quietness of late night, you would hear the rhythmic 'pssssst' of the ventilator and the bubbling of the pleurovac. You would have thought you were in some mad scientist's laboratory. But to us, it became a place of worship.

The emotions of those last twenty-four hours had drained us but everyone around us could see the relief on our faces. We were, indeed, relieved and grateful to be where we were.  But we were also reminded that another family had just experienced the most severe of tragedies that would permanently alter their Christmas holiday for the rest of their lives.  We celebrated but they were grieving. 

(But five short years after this time of celebration [and another with the second heart transplant in 2007], Karen and I along with our entire family and circle of friends encountered that same life-altering experience when Jacob died of cardiac arrest battling a heart rejection episode.)

So we are constantly reminded that someone’s death became the pathway of life for Jacob and us.

 And, so, as we celebrate the birth of the Christ child with all of its gift-giving, food consuming, and family loving splendor, we must remind ourselves the purpose of His birth.

It is in His death and glorious resurrection; we have a pathway of eternal life offered to us.  And that is truly ….

THE BEST OF ALL CHRISTMAS GIFTS

THINGS YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN ….

FOR EDUCATION LEADERS: GBACE Annual Conference, SHIFT, with keynote speaker, Dr. Thom Rainer - http://www.gbace.org/annual-conference.html

FOR TRAINING LEADERSHIP: Ministry Pathways by Ministry Grid; Simplified plans for training ministry leaders throughout your church. http://buff.ly/1jZJIW5

FOR HELP IN WRITING YOUR OWN BIBLE STUDIES: Smallgroup.com offers Bible studies for every book in the Bible and over 200 topics.  Now video supported studies are available! - http://home.smallgroup.com/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP:  DevoHub, a new way of delivering a daily devotional to your church and community - http://devohub.com/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Disciples Path, a plan for developing disciples - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/Disciples-Path

FOR ADULT MINISTRY: 5 Ways Senior Adult Church Become Younger - http://thomrainer.com/2015/09/five-ways-some-senior-adult-churches-became-younger/

FOR MEN’S MINISTRY: Johnny Hunt’s Men’s Conference simulcast, February 5-6, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/product-family/johnny-hunt-men's-conference?type=events&intcmp=MensEvents-MTX-Text-JHuntSimulcast-20150903

FOR WOMEN’S MINISTRY: Priscilla Sherer Live Simulcast, April 23, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/Priscilla-Shirer-Live-Simulcast?type=events&emid=women-pslsimulcasteblast1-pslsimulcastfamilypage-20151118

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: MOVE Conference, Macon, GA, December 28-29 - http://move.superwow.com/#about

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: CONCLAVE Conference, Chattanooga, TN, January 28-30, 2016 - http://ymconclave.org/

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: Discipleship Interview with Real Youth, Parts 1-3 by Ben Trueblood; hear what they want to tell their youth pastor - http://www.lifeway.com/studentministry/2015/10/28/a-discipleship-interview-part-3/

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: Disciples Path for students – a new series for developing your student’s discipleship - http://www.lifeway.com/Disciples-Path/Youth/c/N-1z0znzeZ1z141ym?intcmp=DisciplesPath-MTX-Text-Students-20150625

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: LifeWay Girls Conference, February 19 & 20, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/LifeWay-Girls-Conference?type=events&EMID=jk-newslettergcon-092415

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: Kids Ministry Summit, Jekyll Island, GA, February 4-5 - http://gabaptistgroups.org/training-conferences/2016-kids-ministry-summit/

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: VBS Jumpstarts, helping to get your VBS off on the right foot - http://gabaptistgroups.org/training-conferences/2016-vbs-jumpstarts/

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: I’m a Christian Now resources, newly revised! - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/I'm-a-Christian-Now

A Thanksgiving Tribute: The Silence of God

I readily admit that I am not an intellectual giant (and I’m sure I can find plenty of people who would be quick to step forward and testify on my behalf on this).  I have tried to read C.S. Lewis on several occasions and after a paragraph or two, I would have to pause and say to myself, “wait, what did he just say?” and feel the need to break it down one word at a time.  And with that much mental overexertion, I would quickly lay aside the book.

However, after the death of my son, Jacob, there have been times when I had an insatiable need to read in order to find some sense in the pain experienced in the loss of a loved one and to find answers to questions such as:

Why did God allow this to happen?

Where was God in all of this?

Why were my prayers unanswered? As well as the prayers of many others on his behalf?

How can this be part of God’s plan?

Does prayer really accomplish anything?

I tried to read many good books that helped me cope with these questions but doubts still remained.  Being a minister actually made things worse because I had spent my career teaching and telling people to ‘have faith’; that ‘God is in control’; to’just pray about it’; and on and on my words of ‘comfort and counsel’ had gone.  But now, I was the one that was feeling empty and those ‘comforting words’ were only hand full of thorns that had caused additional pain.

That is until I read C.S Lewis’ “A Grief Observed” … and came across this quote:

 But go to Him when your need is desperate, when all other help is vain, and what do you find? A door slammed in your face, and a sound of bolting and double bolting on the inside. After that, silence. You may as well turn away. The longer you wait, the more emphatic the silence will become. There are no lights in the windows. It might be an empty house. Was it ever inhabited? It seemed so once. And that seeming was as strong as this. What can this mean? Why is He so present a commander in our time of prosperity and so very absent a help in time of trouble?

Wow, he described that same deafening silence I was hearing from God!

As I continued reading on this subject I began to find other people who are well known and well thought of in spiritual circles who described their times of ‘spiritual darkness’ or ‘spiritual dryness’.  And as a result, I quit persecuting myself and came to realize that this is only a part (though a very painful part) of the spiritual maturation process.

I have found myself on a part of the spiritual path I was never aware of before the death of Jacob and one I was not prepared to journey, no, not one iota.

For a period of time I felt I had been abandoned.  Lewis’ description of the doorway was all too real to me.  But now I’m realizing, in the midst of the silence, a very different type of closeness to God  -  one that is difficult to describe.

In recent years, my mantra has become “expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed”.  As cynical and skeptical as that sounds it has really helped me to cope with a lot of things. And in a really strange way, it has simplified and deepened my faith and relationship with God.

Let me explain before you say (if you haven’t already been saying it), “Poor, poor, Richard.  He has really slipped down the steps and gone off the deep end.”

In expecting nothing, it has caused a shift of focus from the gifts desired and now onto gratitude for the giver.  Before, prayer and my entire relationship with God hinged on what I hoped to receive out of it. I always came with great expectations.  And those expectations would sometimes end with disappointment.

Now I come with no expectations. I only strive to be aware of His presence.  I have slowly come to appreciate the small things that come my way now.  I have lowered my expectations of great things and big answers.  Now whatever good comes my way, no matter how small or seemingly insignificant, I try to celebrate on the gift given and, to a greater extent, the giver giving it.

I now find joy and express thanksgiving in things like:

- a car starting (and stopping)

- the wag of a dog’s tail

- the quietness of early morning

- a night sky full of stars

- the sound of rain

- sunrises and sunsets

- the wonder of hummingbirds

- the comfort of the company of friends

- another day with loved ones

- a comfortable home on a cold, rainy night

- knowledge that my children are well for the moment (and that Jacob is well forever)

- the silent, loving presence of my wife

- acknowledging the worth of a person with a smile and cheerful word

- hearing from a childhood friend through Facebook

- walks in the woods

- watching squirrels quibble over a piece of birdseed

- the babbling of our backyard brook

And yes, even in a death of a loved one. Though, I must say, this one brings no joy and, often, very little verbal thanksgiving.  It does result in a quiet sense of His comforting presence.

I could go on listing things and, I hope, you could too.

All of these ‘insignificant’ encounters assure me that God is present.  He has not forsaken me.  This list of things is evidence of his love and concern for me.  Though I may repel from His love at times, though I may even question His love at times … these items are often used to remind me that He is there.

I’m sure you are thinking that this is the strangest tribute to Thanksgiving you’ve ever read.  But I can say that I am thankful for the silence of God in my life.  For as devastating as it has been, it has also opened up a new dimension of God and his presence in my life.  Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!

THINGS YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN ….

FOR CHURCH ADVENT CELEBRATION: The Expected One by Scott James; a book to use in your church for Advent season. Boxes of 20 for only $5! http://buff.ly/1G8Y7JF

FOR CHURCH LEADERS: 8 Local Church Ministry Trends to Consider by Philip Nation -  http://buff.ly/1MXwlwK 

FOR TRAINING LEADERSHIP: Ministry Pathways by Ministry Grid; Simplified plans for training ministry leaders throughout your church. http://buff.ly/1jZJIW5

FOR HELP IN WRITING YOUR OWN BIBLE STUDIES: Smallgroup.com offers Bible studies for every book in the Bible and over 200 topics.  Now video supported studies are available! - http://home.smallgroup.com/

FOR SMALL GROUP MINISTRY: Using Your Cell Phone to Lead by Rick Howerton - http://www.lifeway.com/groupministry/2015/10/12/using-your-cell-phone-to-lead/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Secret Church 16; A Global Gospel in a World of Religions Simulcast by David Platt, April 29, 2016 - http://www.radical.net/secret-church/simulcast

FOR DISCIPLESHIP:  DevoHub, a new way of delivering a daily devotional to your church and community - http://devohub.com/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Disciples Path, a plan for developing disciples - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/Disciples-Path

FOR MEN’S MINISTRY: Johnny Hunt’s Men’s Conference simulcast, February 5-6, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/product-family/johnny-hunt-men's-conference?type=events&intcmp=MensEvents-MTX-Text-JHuntSimulcast-20150903

FOR COLLEGE MINISTRY: Some Things to Know about College Ministry by Steve Parr – http://buff.ly/1MBHVn5 

FOR YOUTH LEADERS: Disciples Path for students – a new series for developing your students discipleship - http://www.lifeway.com/Disciples-Path/Youth/c/N-1z0znzeZ1z141ym?intcmp=DisciplesPath-MTX-Text-Students-20150625

FOR YOUTH LEADERS: International Mission Trips for students - http://accessthenations.com/

FOR YOUTH LEADERS: LifeWay Girls Conference, February 19 & 20, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/LifeWay-Girls-Conference?type=events&EMID=jk-newslettergcon-092415

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: When are Kids Ready to Hear Jesus Died on the Cross? Podcast - http://www.lifeway.com/kidsministry/2015/08/19/podcast-episode-2-when-are-kids-old-enough-to-hear-that-jesus-died-on-a-cross/

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: I’m a Christian Now resources, newly revised! - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/I'm-a-Christian-Now