16 Trends to Watch for in American Churches in 2016

adapted from Dr. Thom Rainer’s blog, thomrainer.com

  Dr. Rainer has been writing on trends in churches for two decades. He realizes that he certainly doesn’t have a perfect record with his predictions, but his overall record is pretty good.

  He explains that his methodology is simple: He observes emerging issues in some churches and extrapolates them into major trends.

  This year he approaches his predictions with a higher level of confidence than previous years. He has watched most of the following issues grow month by month in 2015, so he feels assured to project them as major trends in 2016.

1. Church security as the fastest growing ministry. Shootings in churches and sex abuse of children mandate this unfortunate trend. No church can afford to be without serious security measures, policies, and equipment. It will evolve into a major church ministry.

2. Decrease in worship center size and capacity. The large worship gathering is not as popular as it has been. Through multiple services and multiple sites, churches will follow this preference with smaller capacity worship centers.

3. Increase in successfully revitalized churches. More church leaders sense a call to lead revitalized churches. Because of this desire and intentionality, we will see more success stories of churches that have experienced significant revitalization. 
4. Rapid growth of coaching ministries for pastors and church staff. The current trend is anecdotal, but it will soon be verified and obvious. Pastors and staff who have the humility to be led, and the willingness to invest resources in coaching are becoming the most effective church leaders.
5. Increase in the numbers of churches in gentrified communities. Thousands of older urban communities are becoming revitalized. Churches are following the increased numbers of residents to these communities.
6. Increased emphasis on practical ministry training. Church leaders in America have seen a much needed two-decade renewal of training in classical disciplines and doctrine. That need remains, but more leaders are crying for training in leadership, relational skills, and other practical ministries. 
7. Increasing emphasis on groups in churches. Church leaders are getting it. When church members are a part of some type of group, such as a small group or Sunday school class, they attend more faithfully, evangelize more frequently, and give more abundantly. 
8. Fewer segregated churches. For most of American history, 11:00 am on Sunday was the most segregated hour of the week. That is changing. A church that is not racially and ethnically diverse will soon become the exception instead of the norm. 
9. The rise of the mini-denomination church. This trend is an acceleration of the increased number of multi-site churches. As churches grow with four or more sites, they will take on some of the characteristics of a denomination.
10. Increased pastoral tenure. For a number of reasons, the tenure of a pastor at a given church will increase. More pastors will make it to the five-year mark where the most fruitful years of ministry typically begin. 
11. Rise of alternative ministry placement organizations. Old and existing systems of how churches find prospective pastors and staff are falling apart. They are being replaced with effective and independent ministry search organizations. 
12. Increase in the number of Millennials who are Christians. I am projecting the number to increase from 15 percent of the generation to 18 percent of the generation. That is an increase of 2.3 million Millennials who will become believers in 2016. 
13. Accelerated decline of 100,000 American congregations. Historically, American congregations have been tenacious and survived beyond most expectations. That reality is no longer true. Ineffective churches will decline rapidly as churchgoers are unwilling to be a part of congregations that are not making a difference. 
14. Churches no longer viewed favorably by many governmental units. As a consequence, it will become increasingly difficult for churches to expand their physical facilities or to be able to hold functions in the community.
15. More bi-vocational pastors and staff. This trend is increasingly becoming the result of choices by pastors and staff, rather than financial limitations of congregations. 
16. Dramatic changes in senior adult ministries. The baby boomers will not participate in the way most churches do senior adult ministry. They will force change, particularly from the entertainment model to an activist model.
  
  Let’s watch and see. 
  I hope your 2016 is the best yet.

THINGS YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN ….

FOR CHURCH STAFF: The link to receive free newsletters and updates for every ministry:  www.lifeway.com/newsletters

FOR EDUCATION LEADERS: GBACE Annual Conference, SHIFT, with keynote speaker, Dr. Thom Rainer - http://www.gbace.org/annual-conference.html

FOR TRAINING LEADERSHIP: Ministry Pathways by Ministry Grid; Simplified plans for training ministry leaders throughout your church. http://buff.ly/1jZJIW5

FOR HELP IN WRITING YOUR OWN BIBLE STUDIES: Smallgroup.com offers Bible studies for every book in the Bible and over 200 topics.  Now video supported studies are available! - http://home.smallgroup.com/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP LEADERS: Four Voices That Need to be Heard in Small Groups by David Francis, http://www.lifeway.com/groupministry/2015/10/26/four-voices-in-every-group-conversation/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Top 5 Bible Studies to Begin the New Year with Matt Chandler, Jeremy Johnston, Randy Alcorn & More: http://buff.ly/1YYdVUS

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Bible Study Insider Box ($150 of New Short-Term Study Guides for $50 Which Includes Shipping & a $50 Voucher) http://biblestudyinsider.com/bsi-order-form/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP:  DevoHub, a new way of delivering a daily devotional to your church and community - http://devohub.com/

FOR DISCIPLESHIP: Disciples Path, a plan for developing disciples - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/Disciples-Path

FOR MEN’S MINISTRY: Johnny Hunt’s Men’s Conference simulcast, February 5-6, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/product-family/johnny-hunt-men's-conference?type=events&intcmp=MensEvents-MTX-Text-JHuntSimulcast-20150903

FOR WOMEN’S MINISTRY: Priscilla Shirer Live Simulcast, April 23, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/Priscilla-Shirer-Live-Simulcast?type=events&emid=women-pslsimulcasteblast1-pslsimulcastfamilypage-20151118

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: CONCLAVE Conference, Chattanooga, TN, January 28-30, 2016 - http://ymconclave.org/

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: Disciples Path for students – a new series for developing your student’s discipleship - http://www.lifeway.com/Disciples-Path/Youth/c/N-1z0znzeZ1z141ym?intcmp=DisciplesPath-MTX-Text-Students-20150625

FOR YOUTH MINISTRY: LifeWay Girls Conference, February 19 & 20, 2016 - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/LifeWay-Girls-Conference?type=events&EMID=jk-newslettergcon-092415

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: Kids Ministry Summit, Jekyll Island, GA, February 4-5 - http://gabaptistgroups.org/training-conferences/2016-kids-ministry-summit/

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: VBS Jumpstarts, helping to get your VBS off on the right foot - http://gabaptistgroups.org/training-conferences/2016-vbs-jumpstarts/

FOR KIDS MINISTRY: I’m a Christian Now resources, newly revised! - http://www.lifeway.com/n/Product-Family/I'm-a-Christian-Now